:Product: 20040107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. An M4 x-ray event occurred at
0404 UTC and an M8 x-ray event occurred at 1027 UTC. Both events
were from Region 537 (N07E64) and were associated with type II
sweeps and CMEs off the east limb. The region rotated more fully
into view today as a small (280 millionths) but bright and
magnetically complex sunspot group. Region 536 (S11W02) continues to
be the largest group on the disk and is maintaining its
beta-gamma-delta configuration. There was some indication today that
the region may be slowly decaying. Region 536 could only manage to
produce a couple B-class events. Two new, small, simple regions
emerged on the disk today: Region 538 (N07E04) and Region 539
(N09E29).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for isolated major flare activity. Region 537
is expected to remain active and Region 536 still has the potential
for producing significant flare activity as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
during the past 24 hours. An enhancement in the solar wind flow was
observed at ACE, beginning 2000 UTC on 06 January. The enhancement
consisted of an increase in total field and in solar wind velocity,
and included some extended negative Bz intervals in the -1 to -10 nT
range. Although the flow was somewhat atypical (low density, high
temperature), the signatures appear to be consistent with a CME led
by a compression wave and expanding in low density solar wind that
originated in association with the M6 x-ray event on 5 January. The
slow rotation of Bz from negative to positive during the last 18
hours resulted in a decrease in geomagnetic activity during the last
5-6 hours of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
high during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with some minor storm periods for 08
January based on the continued influence of a high speed solar wind
stream. Mostly active conditions should predominate on 09 January
and a decline to mostly unsettled levels is expected on 10 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 119
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  030/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/030-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           50/35/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/15