:Product: 20040108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/1n flare at
0507 UTC from Region 537 (N04E50). The group produced additional
small flares throughout the day. Analysis of the region indicates a
small, relatively compact group of spots with an inversion line
running northeast to southwest and cutting through penumbra, making
this a delta class group. Region 536 (S10W16) continues to be the
largest group and also has a delta configuration. The region
produced a few small flares during the past 24 hours and is slowly
decaying. A CME was reported by LASCO over the south solar pole,
beginning at 1654 UTC on the 7th, and associated with subsequent
relatively faint, large scale post-eruption loop system (visible in
EIT 195) just to the west and south of Region 536.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for 09-11 January with Regions 536 and 537 being the most
likely source for activity. There continues to be a slight chance
for a major flare or proton producing flare from either of these
regions during the 09-11 January forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind showed a
steady decline of solar wind velocity and Bz was mostly weak during
the past 24 hours. The solar wind appears to be transitioning to
nominal conditions, probably indicating the end of the recent high
speed stream at ACE. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
high during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for 09-11 January with a slight
chance for isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 120
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  016/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  010/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10