:Product: 20040110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels today.  Region
536 (S12W41) has continued to show a slow, gradual decay in spot
coverage.  Multiple B and C-class flares were produced from this
region during the period, the largest was a C7.7/Sf flare that
occurred at 10/0513Z.  Region 537 (N05E24) was limited to B-class
flare production today and did show some decay in penumbral
coverage, although the delta magnetic structure remains well intact.
Near continuous surging along side the inversion line near the
delta configuration was observed throughout much of the day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  There is a fair chance of an isolated major flare
from either of the two remaining spotted active regions visible on
the solar disk; Regions 536 and 537.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. 
Elevated conditions were most likely the response to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. 
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible due to the continued
effects a favorably positioned coronal hole and the associated high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 119
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  015/020-015/025-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/35/35
Major-severe storm    10/15/15