:Product: 20040111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  Regions
536 (S12W54) and 537 (N05E11) produced lesser B and C-class flares
today.  Region 536 continues to show steady decay.  The beta-gamma
magnetic structure remains evident.  Region 537 has changed little
since yesterday, a few satellite spots in the eastern most portion
of the cluster have vanished during the period.  A slight
counter-clockwise rotation in the spot group is evident in white
light analysis.  The beta-gamma/delta magnetic complex remains
intact.  CME activity was seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from
just beyond the solar northeast limb, in the vicinity of where old
Region 528 is due to return on 14 January.  SXI imagery indicates
potential for an active region beyond the solar southeast limb as
coronal surging has been common place through much of the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  A slight chance for an isolated major flare
still exists due to the magnetic complexity of both Regions 536 and
537.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A favorably
positioned coronal hole high speed stream continues to enhance field
conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a quiet to active levels.  Periods of isolated minor
storming are possible in nighttime sectors of high latitudes.  The
geoeffective coronal hole should start to wane by 13 January with
predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions to follow.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 119
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  120/125/130
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05