:Product: 20040112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  Regions
536 (S12W68) and 537 (N05W03) both continue to produce multiple B
and C-class flares.  Region 536 continues to show a slow, steady
decay.  Region 537 has shown a slight growth in penumbral coverage
and retains a complex beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure.  A newly
numbered region; Region 540 (S11E76) appears to have had some minor
flare activity in the vicinity of what so far is a cluster of alpha
spots. These spots became visible earlier in the period.  This
group's proximity to the solar east limb hinders and further
analysis at the time of this writing.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 537 is remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The coronal
hole has moved beyond a geoeffective location on the solar disk. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    50/50/35
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 118
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  006/008-006/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01