:Product: 20040113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 536 (S12W18)
produced several low level C-class flares during the period. 
Penumbral coverage continues to decrease as this region begins to
exit the west solar limb.  Region 537 (N05W16) produced a C1/Sf
flare at 0609Z.  The beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure remains
intact.  Region 540 (S11E68) continues to rotate into view from the
solar east limb.  A trailing cluster of spots became visible late in
the period and detailed analysis is still pending further rotation
of the region onto the disk.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  The
elevated conditions are believed to be due to a transient passage
that occurred at the ACE spacecraft near 0900Z.  The M-class
activity from early on 09 January may have been the source for this
event.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 118
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/010-010/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05