:Product: 20040114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 536 (S12, L=74),
produced a C1 flare at 14/1602 UTC.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 537 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions.  Activity may
increase to active to minor storm conditions on 17 January due to
increased solar wind speeds from a coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 121
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 138
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  010/010-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05