:Product: 20040115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 540 (S13E43)
produced a C3.2/1f at 15/0632 UT.  New Region 541 (S09W03) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 540 is capable of C-class and isolated M-class flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Several hours of
southward Bz in the second half of 15 January may have been
responsible for periods of active conditions.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchrohous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor
storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated arrival of high
speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 119
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 138
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  010/018-015/025-015/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05