:Product: 20040116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 540 (S13E28)
produced a C1.2 flare at 15/2304Z.  New region 542 (N11E54) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily increased to above 600 km/s by the end of the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active.  A coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 17 and
18 January and could  produce isolated minor storm levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 120
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 138
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                22/22/22
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    03/03/03
B.  High Latitudes
Active                22/22/22
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    03/03/03