:Product: 20040121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels today.  Flare
activity was sparse, although Region 543 (S16W21) produced a C2/Sf
that occurred at 21/0036Z.  A slight decay was seen in this region
since yesterday.  Region 540 (S14W35) lost the delta structure in
the trailing position of spot cluster overnight.  Region 542
(N10W16) underwent no significant changes.  Region 544 (N08W04)
decayed slightly in penumbral coverage during the period.  All
spotted regions retain their beta-gamma magnetic features.  A 28
degree disappearing solar filament was observed on SXI and SOHO/EIT
imagery near 21/1200Z.  LASCO imagery is inconclusive at this time
but initial C2 data indicates there is a resulting CME from this
activity.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.  Isolated
periods of major storm conditions are possible with the onset of the
anticipated shock passage, due early on 22 Jan; resulting from the
long duration C-flare that occurred late on 19 Jan.  Unsettled to
active levels are expected on 23 Jan.  Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions should return by 24 Jan.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 130
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  030/045-015/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/15
Minor storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/20
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/01