:Product: 20040122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.  An
impressive filament eruption, seen on SOHO/EIT imagery, was observed
early in the period in the solar northwestern quadrant of the disk. 
An associated CME appears too much north-west directed to become
geoeffective.  A previous filament eruption (early on 21 Jan) and
the associated CME that occurred in the solar southeastern quadrant
may produce a weak geoeffective glancing blow.  Flare activity was
limited to a few low level B-class flares today.  Regions 540
(S14W48) and 544 (N08W17) retain a gamma magnetic structure while
Regions 542 (N10W29) and 543 (N16W34) appear to have lost their
associated gamma features.  Decay in penumbral coverage or magnetic
structure appeared to be the theme in all the active spotted regions
during the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels.  A
shock passage was observed to pass the ACE spacecraft around
22/0100Z as the solar wind speed jumped from 475 km/s to near 700
km/s.  The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field held
primarily north until near 22/0900Z when a sudden southward movement
(which remained south thereafter for several hours) occurred and the
ensuing severe storm conditions were seen at all latitudes.  A 33 nT
sudden impulse was recorded on the Boulder magnetometer at 22/0140Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels early in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels.  Higher
latitudes may experience isolated minor storm conditions into 23 Jan
due to today's shock passage.  A glancing blow from the CME
resulting from the filament eruption in the solar southeastern
quadrant earlier on 21 Jan may produce brief minor storm conditions
on 24 Jan.  The remainder of the period should experience
predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 122
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/065
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  015/025-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05