:Product: 20040123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels again today. 
Several low level B-class flares and minor discrete frequency radio
bursts highlighted today's activity.  All four active regions showed
decay during the period; Regions 540 (S14W61), 542 (N10W42), 543
(S16W47), and 544 (N08W30).  All regions have lost their gamma
characteristics over the past two days.  No new regions were
numbered this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 544 remains capable of producing a
high level C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. 
An apparent transient signature was observed to pass the ACE
spacecraft at approximately 23/1400Z which may be related to the
filament eruption and related CME from the southeastern solar
quadrant early on 19 Jan.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the period.  Isolated minor storm conditions may occur into 24 Jan
due to the recent transient activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 115
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  035/062
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  015/020-012/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01