:Product: 20040124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  A couple
very minor B-class x-ray flares became the extent of today's
observed activity.  All four active regions have continued to decay.
Regions 540 (S14W81), 542 (N10W61), and 543 (S16W60) are now H-type
alpha spot groups.  Region 544 (N08W44) has lost all penumbra and
appears to be a B-type beta spot group.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.  There is a chance for an isolated low level
C-class flare from Region 544.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A brief period
of minor storming occurred at the middle latitudes between 24/0900
and 1200Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions are possible with southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 108
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  021/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  012/012-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05