:Product: 20040125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There were only two,
low-level B-class flares during the past 24 hours, both from Region
540 (S15W91) which rotated around the west limb today. The remainder
of the solar disk was stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (26-28 January), with only a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. An interval of relatively smooth rotation
of the interplanetary magnetic field from zero down to about -12 nT
started at about 24/1800 UTC and ended around 25/0300 UTC. The
magnetic signature was accompanied by enhanced density and declining
temperatures, all of which are suggestive of transient flow. The
geomagnetic field responded with minor storm level conditions
beginning around 0000 UTC and lasting through about 0900 UTC.
Geomagnetic activity has been gradually declining since 0900 UTC
through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods for the next two days (26-27 January). An increase to
unsettled to active is expected on the third day (28 January) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 102
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  020/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  010/015-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/15