:Product: 20040127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Only a few, low-level,
B-class flares were observed. The solar disk is currently devoid of
sunspots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There may be a gradual increase in background and activity
levels with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11) tomorrow (28
January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind signatures indicate the
crossing of a solar sector boundary, with magnetic polarity
switching from a towards (negative) orientation to an away
(positive) configuration between 0500-1300 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (28
January) as a positive polarity coronal hole is rotating into
geoeffective position. A decline to mostly unsettled with possible
isolated active periods is expected for the second and third days
(29-30 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 094
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  100/100/110
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/35
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/05