:Product: 20040129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two new active regions
were numbered today. Region 545 (S20W19) emerged on the disk and
Region 546 (S12E68) rotated around the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with occasional
active periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 to 48 hours.
Activity levels may increase by 31 January due to expected coronal
hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 087
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  090/090/100
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  024/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  010/015-010/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10