:Product: 20040130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several small B and C-class
x-ray flares have occurred from an unnumbered region just beyond the
east limb near NE13. No spots are yet visible but enhancements in
GOES SXI images mark the location where the region is expected to
rotate into view. New Region 547 (S09E14) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small flares are expected from the new region rotating
around the east limb at NE13.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind information from the NASA ACE spacecraft suggest that the
geomagnetic field is under the influence of a high-speed coronal
hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 093
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10