:Product: 20040131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. New Region 549 (N13E70)
continued to produce B and C-class flares. The largest flare was a
C4 at 31/0622 UTC. This region is still close to the limb but
appears to be a D-type sunspot group of moderate size. New Region
498 (N06E30) was also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small flares are expected in Region 549. There is a
chance of a small M-class flare in this region as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of
isolated minor storm periods as the coronal hole induced disturbance
continues.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 094
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  019/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  015/020-015/020-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10