:Product: 20040201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 549 (N14E57) continued
to produce B and small C-class flares. The region is now fully in
view as a magnetically simple E-type sunspot group. Other regions
were relatively quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Small flares are expected to continue in Region 549.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 03
February.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 097
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  010/020-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05