:Product: 20040202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0759 UTC from Region 547 (S09W26),
and a C1 at 1124 UTC from a region very close to the east limb at
latitude N05. Region 547 and 549 (N14E42) are the largest groups on
the disk but are still relatively small and stable. Region 550
(S08W14) and Region 551 (S06E63) were assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (2-4 February). There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-flare from Region 547 or Region 549.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
initially quiet to unsettled condition gave way to about six hours
of storming between 0600-1200 UTC. The storming was associated with
high speed solar wind and some moderately negative interplanetary
magnetic field component Bz (-5 to -10). The field has been mostly
active since 1200 UTC. The solar wind speed has shown a slowly
increasing trend since 0500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (3-4
February), and should decline to mostly unsettled with occasional
active periods for the third day (5 February). The enhanced activity
is expected from favorably positioned coronal holes.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 102
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15