:Product: 20040203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Feb 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares during the past 24 hours, all from Region 551 (S05E51). This region is small, but was bright and active throughout the day. Region 549 (N14E30) continues to be the largest group on the disk (220 Millionths), but could only manage to produce an occasional B-class flare. The other active regions on the disk were quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days (04-06 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream driven by a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the next three days (04-06 February) due to persistent coronal-hole driven activity. III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 120 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 119 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 015/020-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/15/15