:Product: 20040204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Feb 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since yesterday. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above 550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind stream subside. III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Feb 101 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/05