:Product: 20040205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  There have been several B
and low-level  C-class x-ray flares observed during the last 24
hours.  The events were associated with Regions 547 (S08W70), 549
(N14E04), and 552 (S08W20).  The largest region on the visible disk
is Region 551 (S06E26).  This beta group has a 21 sunspot count and
is currently over 200 millionths of white light area coverage.  A
new region was numbered today as Region 553 (S05E01).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
549 and 551.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Isolated periods
of active conditions are possible for 06 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 106
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  105/105/110
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05