:Product: 20040206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  The
activity today consisted of several minor low level B-class flares. 
Region 551 (S06E13) has shown some growth in penumbral coverage
since yesterday.  The gamma structure in the trailing portion of the
region remains intact.  Region 549 (N14W09) has undergone decay in
sunspot count and areal coverage.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 551 has the potential to produce an isolated low
level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A period of
minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes between
06/0300 and 0600Z due to a high speed stream (near 600km/s) and
sustained southward Bz.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from predominantly quiet to active levels
throughout the period.  Day three may experience isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 107
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  012/015-010/015-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10