:Product: 20040207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  A C2.5 x-ray
flare was observed on the east solar limb at 07/1326Z.  This
activity has been associated with newly numbered Region 554 (S08E76)
which has yet to fully emerge onto the visible disk.  Region 551
(S06W00) has continued to show slight, although steady growth in
sunspot count and penumbral coverage.  There appears to be a
counter-clockwise rotation of the spots along with some mixing of
polarities in the heliographic center of this active region.  A
gamma magnetic structure is materializing in this area of the region
while the gamma complex in the trailing portion of the region
remains evident.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.  Region 551 has the potential to produce an isolated
minor M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels throughout the period.
9 February may experience isolated minor storm conditions, at
predominantly higher latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 111
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  008/015-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05