:Product: 20040208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels in the last
minutes of the period.  Region 554 (S08E62) produced an M1/Sf event
at 08/2051Z.  Multiple B and C-class flares where attributed to this
region during the period.  This region has recently rotated onto the
visible solar disk and may have a weak gamma magnetic structure in
the trailing portion of the sunspot cluster, currently analyzed as a
beta group.  Region 551 (S06W14) continues to show steady growth in
penumbral coverage and continued counter-clockwise rotation of the
intermediate sunspots was evidenced once again during the interval. 
A single lesser B-class flare was the extent of flare activity in
this region today.  Spotless active Region 553 (S04W38) managed to
produce a C1 x-ray flare at 08/0452Z.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 551 and 554 have the potential to
produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions may be possible in the nighttime sectors throughout the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 116
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05