:Product: 20040209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels today.  Region
554 (S08E52) produced numerous B and C-class flares today.  Ten
C-class flares were recorded with the largest being a C9 x-ray event
that occurred at 09/1102Z.  LASCO imagery has shown little, if any
associated CME signatures during the past 24 hours of activity from
this region.  Magnetic analysis depicts a delta configuration within
the dominant intermediate spot.  Region 551 (S06W27) did not manage
any flare production during the interval, although surging and point
brightenings were observed throughout the period.  The gamma
structures in the central and trailing portions of the sunspot group
remain intact.  Region 555 (S14E72) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 551 and 554 both have the potential
to produce M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  12 February may
experience active conditions due to a solar sector boundary
crossing, preceding an anticipated recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 118
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  002/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  006/010-008/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05