:Product: 20040210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Regions 551 (S08W41)
and 554 (S10E38) have produced numerous B class flares.  No
significant changes were observed to regions on the visible disk. 
No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Regions 551 and 554 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active and minor
storm conditions possible on 12 and 13 November as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 117
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  120/115/115
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/012-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10