:Product: 20040211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Regions 549
(N12E79),  551 (S08W55) and 555 (S14E45)  produced a few B-class
flares.  No significant changes were observed to regions on the
visible disk.  New Region 556 (N16E22) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Regions 554 and 551 may produce C-class flares. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm conditions.  A
solar sector boundary crossing was observed at ACE about 10/2320
UTC.  ACE solar wind speed increased steadily from 380 km/s at
11/1600 UTC to 450 km/s at 2200 UTC, indicating that the earth may
be entering an expected coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Periods of southward Bz occurred from 1100 UTC to 1800 UTC and
resulted in increased geomagnetic activity towards the end of the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on 12 and 13 February
as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective
position.  Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 14
February.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 114
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  010/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  015/020-015/020-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10