:Product: 20040212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  X-ray flux remains
steady at background levels, with very little fluxuation.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  Regions 551 (S08W68) and 554 (S10E12) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed  increased to around 700 km/s during
the period, and has been steady for the past 12 hours.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
for a brief period today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions through 13
February, under the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream.  A decrease in geomagnetic activity is
expected 14 and 15 February as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 112
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  012/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  015/020-015/020-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/10