:Product: 20040213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  X-ray flux remains
at background levels.  Two new regions were numbered today: Region
557 (S11W32) and Region 558 (S15E36).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Region 554 may produce C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly active, with one period
of isolated minor storming.  The geomagnetic field is still under
the influence of high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective
coronal hole, although solar wind speeds have begun to subside.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 14 February, with isolated
minor storming possible.  Activity should decrease to quiet or
unsettled levels on 15 and 16 February as the coronal hole rotates
out of geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 108
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  016/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  015/020-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/05