:Product: 20040214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 554 (S09W13), the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk, is a D-type group with a
simple beta configuration. This region remains stable with no
significant changes or activity noted this period. New Region 559
(N07W42) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 554.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed
remains elevated following the onset of a high speed coronal hole
stream on 12 February. Solar wind speed averaged 620 km/s this
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The coronal hole high speed stream in effect now is
expected to continue through 16 February. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on 17
February.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 104
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  012/020-012/020-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01