:Product: 20040215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 554
(S09W28) is in slow decay and has been quiet. Region 559 (N08W56)
produced occasional point brightenings and isolated B-class flare
activity. New Regions 560 (S16E30) and 561 (N02E64) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Regions 554 and 559.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to minor storm
levels. This disturbance began on 12 February following the onset of
a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds this period
generally ranged from 650 to 700 km/s. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with isolated
minor storm periods possible through 16 February. Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods on 17 and 18
February as the high speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 102
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  015/020-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/01