:Product: 20040216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 556 (N15W54) produced a
single C-class flare, a C1/Sf at 16/0258Z. Region 554 (S08W43)
continues its gradual decay phase. The remaining regions are small
and simple, and show very little potential for flare activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated low C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal
hole stream that produced the minor disturbance over the past
several days has declined considerably. Solar wind speed peaked
yesterday near 800 km/s, but gradually decreased to 500 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 099
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01