:Product: 20040217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  The
largest event of the period was a long duration B4 x-ray flare that
occurred at 17/2006Z.  The event appeared to be from a source region
just beyond the southeast solar limb.  Surging in the northwest
solar quadrant was observed just prior to this activity.  Regions
554 (S08W56) and 561 (N02E39) are currently the only spotted active
regions on the visible disk.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 102
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  004/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01