:Product: 20040218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Spotless
active Region 556 (N15W80) produced the largest event during the
period, a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 18/1708Z.  Several lesser
B-class flares comprised the remainder of the recorded activity
today.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
(neared very high) levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 098
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  100/095/100
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  008/008-008/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05