:Product: 20040219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Newly
numbered Region 562 (S11E73) and spotless Region 556 (N15W93)
produced multiple low level B-class flares today.  LASCO imagery
depicts faint CME activity which is believed to have been from a
source region beyond the solar southeast limb.  The remainder of the
active regions were quiescent throughout the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on 22 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 096
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  008/010-008/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/06
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05