:Product: 20040220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  There was no
reported flare activity during the period.  Region 562 (S11E59) is a
two spot simple beta region.  Newly numbered Region 563 (S21E66) is
an alpha group.  Region 561 (N02W01) is the only other spotted
region on the solar disk, displaying a single small penumbral spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  A weak recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated active conditions on
22 and 23 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 095
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  008/010-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05