:Product: 20040221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  New Region 564
(N14E42) produced a B6 flare at 1444Z.  Other spot groups on the
disk produced little activity and are magnetically simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with one period of
unsettled conditions observed at 1500Z.  Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible, due to a small and variable high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 098
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05