:Product: 20040222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 564 has
produced a number of minor C-class flares, the largest of which was
at C1.9 at 22/2000Z.  Region 564 has grown considerably over the
past twenty four hours and may be developing a magnetic delta
configuration in its intermediate spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 564 is likely to produce more C-class flares. 
If the polarity mixing in the intermediate spots continue, a chance
for isolated M-class flares will increase.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible from a weak recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 104
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01