:Product: 20040223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 564 (N13E13)
produced a C1 flare at 22/2321Z.  Region 564 continues to grow in
area coverage but has simplified in magnetic complexity.  The
polarity mixing observed yesterday in the intermediate spots appears
to be predominantly negative polarity today.  New Region 565(S05E35)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to very low
to low.  Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 104
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  105/105/110
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  008/010-010/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01