:Product: 20040224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region
564(N15E00) continues to increase in size, reaching 470 millionths
today.  The magnetic complexity of Region 564 remains relatively
unchanged.  A slight increase in X-ray background levels was
observed starting around 1300Z.  New Region 566(N05E21) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 106
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 113
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/012-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01