:Product: 20040225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  There have been several
minor C-class events with the most significant being a C8.0 from
Region 564 (N14W14) on the 25th at 1225 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 564, which will remain on the visible disk through 28
February, continues to have the potential for C-class activity, with
a very slight chance of an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 119
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 114
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  012/015-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01