:Product: 20040226RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Feb 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 564 (N14W27) produced an X1/2n major flare which occurred at 26/0203Z. There was no indication of a CME in association with this flare on LASCO imagery. Multiple B and C-class flares were observed throughout the period. Many intermediate sunspots merged into a single large penumbral magnetic delta complex. This region has shown steady growth throughout the day. Region 565 (S05W07) decreased in areal sunspot coverage although penumbra is now visible in both polarities. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 564 has the potential to produce isolated major flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 29 February may experience active conditions due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb Class M 60/60/60 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Feb 121 Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 008/012-008/012-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/30 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05