:Product: 20040227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 564 (N14W42)
produced an M5.7 at 2230 UTC on the 26th.  No CME activity was noted
with this eruption.  The region continues to be active with several
point brightenings noted throughout the period.  Region 565 (S04W21)
has remained unchanged since the 26th.  Region 567 (S14E50) was
newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 564 continues to have the potential to produce
isolated major flaring through the 30th.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active levels at 0600 and 2100 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the 28th.  Late on
the 29th and continuing through the 30th, a recurrent high speed
solar wind stream is expected to generate isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 122
Predicted   28 Feb-01 Mar  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 113
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar  008/012-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/40
Minor storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10