:Product: 20040228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  There were several B- and
C-class X-ray events during the period.  Region 564 (N15W54) has had
no significant changes from yesterday and continues to have a good
potential to produce a major flare.  There are an additional four
regions each classified as Beta magnetic configuration, that have a
fair potential to produce a major flare.  Region 568 (S16W20) was
newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for isolated moderate.  There remains a
good potential for Region 564 to produce a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to active with an
isolated period of minor storming at 0900 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a fair chance for
periods of minor storming through 2 March, due to the influence of a
high-speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    60/60/45
Class X    20/20/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 116
Predicted   29 Feb-02 Mar  120/115/110
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  020/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar  020/020-020/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10