:Product: 20040229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Only one flare occurred
during the past 24 hours, a B4 at 0617 UTC from Region 564 (N13W67).
This Region continues to dominate the disk in size and complexity,
but appears to be in slow decline as it approaches west limb. A CME
was observed on the southwest limb by LASCO, beginning at 1230 UTC.
The plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be about 500 km/s. EIT 195
difference images show that the CME must have originated from behind
the solar disk since the associated activity is first seen off the
southwest limb starting at 1200 UTC. The CME is not earthward
directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There continues to be a chance, however, for an isolated M-class
event from Region 564.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Although unsettled to active levels predominated,
there was an interval of mostly minor storm level activity between
0900-1500 UTC. Solar wind data show that the activity is being
driven by a high speed stream which is associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active, with possible minor storm periods, for
tomorrow (1 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for
the 2nd day (2 March), and mostly unsettled should prevail by 3
March.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Feb 110
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  110/105/100
90 Day Mean        29 Feb 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb  016/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10