:Product: 20040301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 564 (N13W80)
produced two B-class flares during the past 24 hours but was
otherwise quiet and stable. Region 567 (S13E11) is the only other
region of note on the solar disk, and has some mixing of weak
magnetic polarity near the center of the group. However the region
did not produce any flare activity during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from Region 564 or Region 567.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show
the continuation of a high speed stream associated with a favorably
positioned corona hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (2 March)
as the current conditions are likely to persist. A decline to mostly
unsettled is expected for the 2nd and 3rd days (3-4 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    20/15/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 102
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  100/095/090
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb  017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  015/020-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           35/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/10/10