:Product: 20040302RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Mar 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0659 UTC from departing Region 564 on the west limb at N15. Region 567 (S12W04) is now the largest group on the disk with area of 140 millionths, but was quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (03-05 March). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show persistence of a high speed wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. There was a gradual overall decline in solar wind velocity from around 700 km/s down to about 620 km/s during the past 24 hours, suggesting the high speed stream is beginning to wane. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for 03-04 March. Conditions should decline to generally unsettled by 05 March. III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Mar 099 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/015-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/40 Minor storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/10