:Product: 20040303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 567 (S12W16) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 02/2149 UTC and
a C1 at 02/2327 UTC. A CME was observed from the southeast limb,
beginning at 02/2354 UTC, but was not earthward directed and was
probably from a backside source. Region 567 is showing slow growth
and may be building up some weak shear along its backward S-shaped
polarity inversion line. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to low for
the next three days (04-06 March). Region 567 is expected to produce
additional C-class level activity. There is a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
interval of active to minor storm levels between 0900-1500 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with some isolated active periods for 04
March. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 05 March and quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for 06 March. The decrease in
activity is expected from the slow decline of the high speed solar
wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 090
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  012/015-010/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/05